A recent study by mathematicians at the University of Exeter and University College Cork in Ireland highlights the dangers of tipping points in rapidly changing systems.
The study focuses on rate-induced tipping, which is triggered not by a critical level of change but by how quickly that level is reached.
This can lead to abrupt changes in natural and human systems, such as the reorganization of ocean circulation currents, extinction of ecosystem populations, and power grid blackouts.
Critical thresholds have been assumed to be a point of no return, but the new study suggests that dangerous rates could trigger permanent shifts in human and natural systems before critical levels are reached.
The research team believes that controlling the rate of change in external forcing is often more important than peak change to avoid triggering tipping points.
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 6th Assessment Report highlighted the urgency to limit global warming levels, but it failed to identify the rate of warming as a key risk factor for climate tipping points.
The phenomenon of rate-induced tipping is not limited to climate systems, but can also be observed in ecosystems and human-made systems using mathematical modeling.
source: news.exeter.ac.uk
